INDIA’S NORTH-SOUTH DIVIDE SPARKS CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS AND DISINTEGRATION CONCERNS

Maria Mansab

In a recent report, Bloomberg underscored the escalating north-south divide in
India, emphasizing the heightened risk of a constitutional crisis and the potential
fragmentation of India into two opposite blocs.
The North-South divide in India is rooted in socioeconomic and political indicators
the literacy rate in the North is 20% lower than South. The South demonstrates
superior performance in the Human Development Index (HDI) encompassing
infrastructural development, quality of educational and vocational institutions, facilities of
medical colleges and IT institutions, and healthcare.
The South has continuously opposed the Hindutva ideology, the 2019 Lok Sabha
elections demonstrated a clear pattern wherein the BJP failed to secure a single
seat in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The political parties in both North and South India
have strategically utilized this division as a foundation for their political endeavors.
Since assuming office a decade ago, Modi has exhibited an almost absolute degree
of authority over Indian politics, except for one point: He has been unable to gain
support from the more affluent southern region of the country.
India is gradually dividing into two distinct regions – a more affluent and mature
South and a less prosperous and younger North. At the beginning of 2018, Murali
Mohan, a member of the Telugu Desam Party, voiced his discontent with the
perceived disregard of the Union Government towards the states of South India. He
cautioned that if this problem continued, South India would establish itself as an
independent nation.
In addition, when multiple leaders of South Indian states voiced their dissatisfaction with
the Union Government’s allocation of tax revenue to different states, M. K. Stalin, the
leader of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, expressed his endorsement for a selfgoverning Dravida Nadu state, if all other South Indian states were to adopt the same
idea.
The Public Affairs Index study in India has once again emphasized the significant
inequalities between the northern and southern regions regarding governance levels.
Narendra Modi is exacerbating the pronounced regional disparities in India, leading
to a growing sense of oppression among the southern states.
India has yet to carry out the decadal census, utilizing the population census as a
basis for delimitation would result in the deprivation and reduction of representation for
southern states. The concerns expressed by political parties in southern India
regarding the potential loss of Lok Sabha and legislative assembly seats in the upcoming
delimitation process, which is anticipated to be concluded by 2026 following the
postponed decadal census, are not wholly unfounded.
From the perspective of the BJP, delimitation presents significant advantages in
the northern region. This is because states with large populations, such as Uttar
Pradesh, will need to allocate a considerable number of seats, in contrast to the South
where population growth has been comparatively lower. Karnataka is the sole state in
South India where the BJP holds promising chances. The BJP has 25 out of the 28 Lok
Sabha seats in the state, but it does not hold any seats in Andhra Pradesh (total 25
seats), Kerala (20 seats), or Tamil Nadu (39 seats). Telangana has a total of four
seats out of the 17 seats available.
The BJP strategically employed the delimitation process to gain a political edge
over the South bloc, which was opposing the saffron agenda. They used this as a tool to
maintain their political and electoral supremacy while restricting funding allocation to
states governed by the Opposition. The BJP has engaged in a deliberate process of
undermining the Constitution and is currently endeavoring to establish a novel political
framework by suppressing dissenting voices.
The Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, M K Stalin, recently described it as a “sword of
Damocles” that poses a significant threat to the state. He has expressed his
determination to resist any potential loss of seats.
The country’s economically advanced and prosperous region is moving away from
the impoverished northern area and its authoritarian leader. Modi has imprisoned the
organization’s leadership and thwarted its financial resources to solidify his electoral
triumph. This could potentially jeopardize the secular constitution of India under
Modi 3.0 term. The anticipation of such a result evokes a sense of apprehension among
the Southern region.
A yawning gulf has resulted from ten years of Modi’s polarizing rule, not only in
terms of what citizens receive from their government but also in terms of what they desire
from it. Priorities of the South, namely social progress and economic development, are
no longer relevant in the North. Modi has infused individuals’ material lives with
religious zeal. This fervor is expressed through the persecution of individuals
belonging to non-Hindu faiths, specifically Muslims, who constitute 14% of the
populace. Further five years of the same majoritarian policies could potentially
strain the federal fabric of the nation and threaten the future of India as a pluralistic,
free-market democracy with a population of 1.4 billion.
Modi’s electoral mandate appears increasingly fragile, lacking broad-based
support, particularly in the South. The persistence of this division threatens to deepen
fissures within India’s social and political fabric, presenting challenges to national
cohesion and economic consolidation. The widening north-south division in India
raises grave concerns about the potential dismemberment of the nation.