The strangulation of Indus Delta
Publishing date: 04 September 2025
Published in: Business Recorder
For decades, India, the worst foe, has worked persistently to promote a misleading narrative at international fora — that Pakistan is wasting approximately forty million of acre-feet (MAF) of water into the Arabian Sea each year. This claim is frequently invoked by Indian officials to justify the construction of dams on the western rivers in Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, portraying Pakistan as a negligent custodian of its own water share. But beneath this narrative lies a reality far more urgent — and far more perilous.
What India calls “wastage” is, in fact, the critical ecological flow of the Indus River to its natural endpoint — the Arabian Sea — via the Indus Delta. This delta is not just a geographic feature; it is one of the world’s most fragile and significant delta systems. It sustains vast mangrove forests, supports a centuries-old fishing economy and provides the freshwater foundation for agriculture and life in lower Sindh. More than 1.5 million people across Thatta, Sujawal and Badin districts depend directly on the health of this ecosystem.
The above fresh water wastage symbol cited by Indian sources is an absolute distortion based on historical flows that occurred before the construction of major dams, barrages, and canal networks. In reality, Pakistan today diverts over 90% of its surface water for agriculture and domestic needs. Only a small trickle — between 1 and 5 MAF per year — now reaches the Indus Delta, dramatically below the 10 MAF minimum threshold reportedly recommended in the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord. Independent scientific assessments, including those by WWF and IUCN, suggest that even higher flows — up to 27 MAF annually — are required to preserve the delta’s structural and biological integrity vis-a-vis biodiversity.
The consequence of starving the delta of freshwater is unfolding with disturbing speed. Seawater is intruding deep inland, salinizing aquifers and agricultural soils, degrading once-productive farmland, and causing the collapse of mangrove ecosystems. Coastal erosion, now proceeding at 30 to 70 meters per year, has already claimed over a significant acreage of fertile land in southern Sindh.
This is not just an environmental crisis; it is a humanitarian, economic, and national security threat. A collapsing delta translates directly into food insecurity, mass migration, and long-term destabilization.
Globally, water experts reject the notion that river flows to the sea are a waste. International water law, including the UN Watercourses Convention and Ramsar Convention, as well as Sustainable Development Goal 6.6, all stress the necessity of environmental flows to maintain delta and estuarine ecosystems. Countries like the Netherlands, Vietnam and Egypt proactively release freshwater to the sea to preserve coastal ecology, support fisheries and maintain salinity gradients. These nations treat freshwater reaching the sea not as loss, but as responsibility.
Our leadership has also responded firmly to India’s threats. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has declared that India “cannot snatch even a single drop” of Pakistan’s share under the Indus Waters Treaty, while army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir warned that any hostile attempt to block the river’s flow would invite decisive retaliation, even destruction of unlawful dams if necessary. These statements underscore that Pakistan views water not only as an ecological necessity but as a matter of sovereignty and survival.
At the same time, international pressure is also mounting on New Delhi and need to be obviously intensified through friendly countries. US President Donald Trump, recently uninterruptedly, intervened directly to cool rising tempers when tensions between India and Pakistan risked escalating into open conflict over water disputes. Trump also emphasized that Pakistan’s water rights under the treaty must be safeguarded, calling out India’s rigid approach.
China, a co-riparian state and strategic partner, has likewise conveyed that tampering with Pakistan’s share would destabilize regional peace and invite global scrutiny. Other world leaders, particularly within the UN climate and environmental forums, have echoed the principle that rivers must retain ecological flows to the sea. India increasingly finds itself isolated in trying to brand environmental necessity as “wastage.”
Nevertheless, Pakistan’s response must be bold, strategic and multidimensional. We must strongly pursue legal redress through the International Court of Justice, and World Bank, and leverage scientific evidence at climate and environmental fora. Domestically, infrastructure projects like the Diamer-Bhasha Dam should be fast-tracked — although not at the expense of the delta’s survival. The Green Pakistan Initiative, while ambitious, must be critically reassessed to prevent the over-allocation of water if any, to corporate agriculture at the cost of environmental flows.
This is a fight that transcends borders. A river that does not reach the sea is a dying river. India’s recent actions — including obstructing Indus Waters Treaty obligations — are not just about controlling water; they are about wielding geopolitical leverage and eroding Pakistan’s environmental sovereignty. Pakistan has remained diplomatically cautious while India has been trying to dominate her obscure diminishing narrative. However, silence and any softness, if any, must end. The Indus River has flowed into the sea for millennia — long before treaties and borders were drawn. That final act of the river is not a failure of governance; it is the signature of a living ecosystem. To choke that flow is to invite ecological collapse and societal ruin.
India’s argument is not just scientifically inaccurate — it is a politically calculated strategy aimed at eroding Pakistan’s rights. Our answer must be rooted in science, sovereignty and unity. Let the world remember: when a river no longer reaches the sea, it is not just water that is lost — it is a nation’s future.