MODI’S POLICY SHIFTS: HOW THEY’RE SHAPING INDIA-PAKISTAN DYNAMICS AND BEYOND
Aiman Khattak
Publishing date: 22 May 2024
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third five-year term, focusing on his campaign against religious minorities, especially Muslims, and his anti-Pakistan stance. He aims to transform India into a Hindu state, moving away from its secular identity, and has been increasingly confrontational towards Pakistan. The Lok Sabha elections, held in seven stages which started from April 19, will conclude on June 4. With 543 seats up for grabs, a party needs 272 to form a government. Modi and his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners are aiming for over 400 seats, while the rival INDIA group, led by Congress, hopes to defeat Modi with the support of nearly 970 million voters across India.
While most opinion polls indicate that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win the upcoming election, Prime Minister Modi’s goal of securing a two-thirds majority to potentially amend India’s constitution may not be realized. Analysts suggest that the BJP may not achieve the same level of success as in the previous election, potentially falling short of the 303 seats it previously held. Yet the possibility of a hard-line Hindu nationalist party securing a third consecutive term in power carries significant implications for the world’s largest democracy and regional geopolitics. There is a growing apprehension that the pursuit of establishing a Hindu supremacist state could exacerbate existing tensions and potentially formalize the second-class status of more than 250 million Muslim citizens, both in terms of legal frameworks and everyday realities. This scenario raises concerns about the potential impact on social cohesion, religious harmony, and the overall democratic fabric of the nation.
Furthermore, in 2019, a contentious law centered on religion was enacted, drawing criticism from the United Nations for its discriminatory nature. This law, which has been implemented just before the upcoming elections in India, is seen as a strategic move to garner support in the country’s heartland. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has expressed concern, stating that this action by India goes against its international human rights obligations. The timing and implications of this law have sparked debates about its impact on religious freedom, social cohesion, and the overall human rights situation in the region.
Moreover, during the tenure of the Modi government, there has been a significant rise in attacks targeting Muslims. Instances of lynching have increased, along with reports of assaults on Muslim places of worship. These attacks are often linked to Hindu extremist groups associated with the ruling party and are reportedly carried out under the watch of the administration.
During the election campaign, Prime Minister Modi and other BJP leaders have vowed to expunge the historical Muslim presence in India. Modi has been actively seeking issues that resonate with voters. The recent inauguration of the Ram temple on the site of the demolished Babri Masjid in Ayodhya exemplifies his growing focus on communal politics. The Supreme Court of India’s validation of the destruction of the 15th-century mosque in 1992 further underscores this trend.
Additionally, after the inauguration of the Ram temple, there have been movements to convert several other historical mosques into temples. Some Hindutva leaders have even advocated for the elimination of Muslims. Human rights organizations caution against a potential increase in mass atrocities and state involvement under the return of the BJP government. They suggest that voting against the BJP could prevent the solidification of Hindu nationalism in India before it becomes irreversible. A third term for the Modi government may pose a threat to India’s secular identity and democratic values.
Therefore, the potential re-election of Modi in the Indian elections does not bode well for Pakistan. Bilateral relations between the two nations have deteriorated significantly during the previous terms of the Modi government. It comes as no surprise that the Indian Prime Minister has escalated tensions with Pakistan just before the elections.
Just before the 2019 elections, Modi ordered an airstrike in Pakistan following alleged terror attacks in Pulwama, Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of many Indian soldiers. Pakistan responded with its own military action, escalating tensions between the two nations. The BJP government utilized the Pulwama incident to fuel nationalist feelings, a strategy that played a significant role in Modi securing a second term as Prime Minister.
And after winning the 2019 election, the second term of Modi government controversially annexed Indian-administered Kashmir in August of that year. This move resulted in strained diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan and hindered any chances of reconciliation. With a potential third term for Modi on the horizon, there are concerns about the negative impact this could have, not just for Pakistan, but for the global community as a whole.