TROUBLING NEXUS: TTP AND THE AFGHAN TALIBAN – A THREAT TOPAKISTAN AND BEYOND
Maria Mansab
Publishing date: 01 June 2024
The latest 33rd report presented to the United Nations Security Council Committee by the ISIL (Daesh) and Al Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring Team reveals a disturbing alliance. The banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is receiving substantial assistance from Al Qaeda, other extremist groups, and the Afghan Taliban to intensify their operations in Pakistan. This collaboration, involving the supply of weaponry, equipment, and direct ground assistance, marks a troubling escalation in regional terrorism dynamics.
Pakistan’s concerns have reached a boiling point as the Afghan Taliban continues to turn a blind eye to the banned TTP, which has perpetrated numerous terrorist attacks on Pakistani soil. The report highlighted that despite the Afghan Taliban officially discouraging the TTP’s activities beyond Afghanistan, numerous TTP fighters have carried out cross-border assaults in Pakistan without encountering significant consequences. Alarmingly, some members of the Taliban, driven by a supposed religious obligation, have joined the TTP. It has been reported that TTP fighters and their families regularly get assistance packages from the Afghan Taliban, indicating a more significant degree of backing.
A troubling video circulating on social media depicts the Afghan Taliban promoting opposition to Pakistan and denouncing the Pakistan army as “murtad,” a phrase employed by TTP. The recruitment of Afghans by the TTP and the officials propagating the TTP ideology have intensified Pakistan’s apprehensions regarding a potential nexus between the Taliban and the TTP. Although the top leadership of the Afghan Taliban denies any affiliation with the TTP and refuses to acknowledge its existence in Afghanistan, this circumstance highlights the increasing regional vulnerability posed by terrorist organizations regrouping in Afghanistan.
The TTP is the largest militant organization engaged in armed conflict against Pakistan. As per the United Nations, the TTP has a significant number of fighters in Afghanistan. They have established a stronghold on both sides of the AfghanistanPakistan border. Despite the collapse of TTP between 2014 and 2018 due to Pakistan armed forces efforts the militant group has been seeing a significant resurgence since the Afghan Taliban seized power in Kabul in August 2021.
After assuming control, the Afghan Taliban released several TTP detainees from jails in Kabul, including prominent TTP figures such as Maulvi Faqir Mohammad, the founding deputy emir. The TTP celebrated the liberation of its members by organizing extensive vehicle rallies and caravans in eastern Afghanistan. Videos released following the Taliban’s assumption of power depict the TTP having unrestricted operational autonomy in Afghanistan.
Furthermore, the TTP officially reaffirmed its commitment to its ally by congratulating the Afghan Taliban on their return to office. The TTP’s leadership consistently emphasized the Afghan Taliban as an exemplary model for their fighters, asserting that steadfastness in their conflict against the Pakistani state will ensure a comparable triumph to that of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Furthermore, in the months after the collapse of the Afghan government, the TTP issued numerous attack claims, resulting in the highest average monthly attack rate over the past five to six years.
The recent report from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) provides insight into the alarming consequences of the Taliban’s rise to power on Pakistan’s security situation. The TTP has taken advantage of the absence of authority in Afghanistan to reorganize and carry out attacks over the border. The return of the TTP and the increase in cross-border attacks present substantial risks to regional security. The escalation of terrorist operations also gives rise to apprehensions regarding the possible diffusion of violence into adjacent states. The instability in Afghanistan has fostered an atmosphere where extremist groups can cooperate, pool resources, and synchronize attacks across borders, thereby exacerbating regional security complexities.
The instability in Afghanistan has facilitated the convergence of different terrorist groups, resulting in heightened cooperation and coordination among extremist organizations. The possibility of various groups sharing resources, tactics, and strategies increases the likelihood of large-scale and coordinated attacks, directly ending world peace and stability.
Pakistan has attempted to negotiate with the TTP, however, the terms put out by the TTP were impractical. Pakistan has issued a warning of possible military intervention against Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan in response to ongoing cross-border strikes. While this is a last resort, Pakistan is committed to implementing essential actions to safeguard its borders and ensure national security.
The international community has not yet recognized the Taliban’s government since it has not fulfilled the commitments made in the Doha peace agreement, namely the pledge to prevent Afghan territory from being utilized for international acts of terrorism. The Taliban’s unwillingness to address these concerns jeopardizes Afghanistan’s stability and intensifications further hostilities, wherein the Afghan populace will bear the brunt of the violence.
For Pakistan, the intricate web of nexus between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban has been a subject of concern. This deadly nexus, characterized by ideological affinity, historical ties, and shared interests, presents a complex challenge to regional stability. The TTP, an offshoot of the Afghan Taliban, has waged a violent insurgency within Pakistan, seeking to overthrow the government and establish its brand of Islamist rule. To maintain regional stability, the international community must take immediate steps to curb terrorist activities and exert pressure on the Afghan government to implement punitive measures against those facilitating or supporting such actions. Neglecting this action could result in Afghanistan being a substantial menace to regional stability, necessitating immediate and synchronized international endeavors to avert additional destabilization