TTP-TTA Nexus: A Formidable Threat to Pakistan’s Stability
Publishing date: 03 May 2024
The rise of Afghan Taliban (TTA) took place in early 90’s as a Sunni-Islamist nationalist and Pro-Pashtun movement that ruled Afghanistan from 1996-2001 and has again came into power after USA’s withdrawal in August 2021. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on the other hand is an alliance of militant networks formed in 2007 to oppose Pakistani military with a desire to remove Islamabad’s control over FATA and neighboring KP’s region. TTP has often been assisting Afghan Taliban across the war against United States and both the groups share a common ideology with separate command structures. Current TTP’s chief Noor Wali Mehsud has publicly alleged his support to Afghan Taliban.
Global Terrorism Database ranks Pakistan 4th on Global Terrorism Index with a recent surge in terrorist attacks such as an assault on Mianwali airbase, ambush on a military convoy in Gwadar, bomb attack on police patrol in DI Khan, deadly clash in Tirah valley and an attack on a post in Mir Ali on 16th March that martyred seven soldiers. TTP and TTA are threat to regional peace and security dilemma. The withdrawal of US forces resulted in leaving behind $7 billion worth of weapons including quadcopters, night vision googles, advanced rifles and snipers. These weapons were easily made accessible to TTP which shows linkage of TTA with TTP. Modern weapons were used in recent Mianwali airbase attack. Afghanistan not just acted as a safe heaven’s for terrorist but TTA has allowed terrorist sanctuaries in areas bordering Durand Line. It has also violated Doha Accord and let TTP terrorists carry insurgency against Pakistan.
TTP has emerged stronger than before after Taliban’s takeover and TTP-TTA relationship became evident after August takeover. TTA released leaders and large number of TTP’s fighters that were imprisoned by former Ghani’s government. TTA has also provided political asylum to TTP’s leaders from where they are carrying out violence campaigns against Pakistan. This nexus has challenged authority of state. The attacks on government officials and law enforcement agencies produce serious threat among citizens. This has led to economic deprivation with attacks on foreign officials mainly Chinese nationals and foreign direct investment is affected. Pakistan faces serious economic concern due to attacks on projects like CPEC and billions of dollars have been lost. The nexus has led to sectarian violence and ethnic issues as we have seen Baloch militant organizations getting inspired by TTP as they are assured about formation of independent government on the model of Taliban government formed in Afghanistan. This spread of extremism is not just limited to Pakistan rather has impacted neighboring states like Iran and other Central Asian states making it a matter of regional insecurity.
It was mainly due to consistent refusal of Afghan Taliban to stop working with TTP that led Pakistan to pick out measures such as enhanced border control (border fencing) and deportation of illegal Afghan refugees. This has resulted in an upsurge fueling terrorism and causing instability in the region. Afghan government clearly needs to rethink its policies as they can never stabilize their country by letting TTP work with other militant organizations to destabilize Pakistan. The internal security, economic stability and regional connectivity of both the states is interlinked. Thus, they must engage diplomatically for a peaceful neighborhood to maintain peace. One of the major concerns for Pakistan is the deniability of Taliban against the proofs given by Pakistani government on involvement of Taliban in attacks within Pakistani territories.
Pakistan needs to get Afghan Taliban’s top brass into account because it is them that matters the most. They should strictly be made sure that they end further ties with TTP so insurgency can be stopped. China can also play a part in mediation by adopting Shuttle Diplomacy between both as China has huge economic and strategic interest with an investment of almost $60 billion in Pakistan in forms of CPEC and huge development including fastest railway track in Afghanistan. China would never want to see these states into conflict. Pakistan should furthermore adopt Carrot and Stick Policy (mediation or use of force) with Afghanistan. This can be done by ensuring trade with Afghanistan if they counter TTP and not accepting the government of Afghanistan if they don’t counter TTP as they assured during Doha Peace Talks. Pakistan can adopt coercive policy by doing strict measures against Afghan illegal immigrants and also by not letting exports into Afghanistan. All these measures can help lower TTP-TTA nexus and bring stability to Pakistan.