AFGHANISTAN 2021–2026: CONTROL WITHOUT GOVERNANCE – MISERY, POVERTY, AND OPPRESSION FOR THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN

Published Date: May 4, 2026

Author: Miss Saira

Context

• Five years after the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan presents a stark case of consolidated territorial control without functional governance. The regime’s policies particularly its tolerance of terrorist groups such as the TTP and the resulting spillover of terrorism into neighboring countries. The Afghan Taliban regime are illegitimate usurpers of power and remain unrecognized internationally. Their rule, based on a perverted ideology, has brought only misery, poverty, and oppression for the people of Afghanistan.

Collapsed and Plateaued Economy Since 2021

• Following a contraction of nearly 25 to 30% between 2021 and 2023, economic growth has remained negligible at 1 to 2% annually through 2025–26. GDP remains stuck around $14 to 15 billion, far below pre-2021 levels of $20.1 billion, and growth in 2026 is also likely to remain well below 4%. Per capita income fell by 34% between 2020 and 2025. According to the World Bank, GDP per capita currently standing at $448 is expected to decline further by 4 to 6%. Meanwhile, the return of more than 5.2 million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan is adding additional strain, with 21.9 million people (45% of the population) now in need of humanitarian assistance.

Financial Sector & Private Economy

• Public expenditure dropped by 75% following the suspension of foreign donor funding. While currency stability is cited as a success by the Taliban regime, it largely reflects suppressed demand, restricted imports, and tight controls rather than genuine economic resilience. With over $9 billion in reserves inaccessible and sanctions still intact, Afghanistan’s financial system remains structurally constrained. Withdrawal limits imposed during 2022–23 led to a sharp fall in deposits, while credit growth remains near zero. As a result, over 50% of firms report reduced operations or complete closure.

Sharp Increase in Poverty and Unemployment

• Poverty has surged from 47% in 2020 to 85% in 2025. Currently, 85 to 90% of Afghanistan’s population lives in poverty or economic vulnerability, and nearly 30 million people approximately two-thirds of the population require humanitarian assistance. Afghanistan’s labor market reflects deep structural damage. Up to 900,000 jobs were lost in the immediate aftermath of 2021, and recovery since then has been minimal. Between 90 to 97% of households experienced income shocks, while average household incomes declined by 25 to 40% post 2021. Unemployment currently stands at 13 to 14%. Looking ahead, approximately 1.7 million new job seekers will enter the labor market by 2030 far beyond the economy’s absorption capacity. The return of over 5.2 million refugees in 2025 has further intensified pressure on jobs, housing, healthcare, and basic services.

Lack of Female and Youth Participation

• Female participation in the workforce has been effectively dismantled, removing a critical driver of household income. Only 7% of women are employed outside the home, compared to 84% of men, reflecting the severe exclusion of half the population. These restrictions on women have cost the economy approximately $920 million between 2024 and 2026. At the same time, youth unemployment remains entrenched, contributing to long-term instability. Afghanistan remains the only country in the world where girls are systematically barred from secondary and higher education. As a result, over 1.1 to 1.3 million girls are excluded from schools, with university bans still in place. This exclusion is not only a social issue but also a major economic one, with billions in future GDP permanently lost due to the systematic removal of half the population from education.

Rising Food Insecurity

• Food insecurity continues at a massive scale, with 15 to 20 million people in acute need and over 3.2 million children suffering from acute malnutrition. While aid agencies are able to prioritize only 3.9 million people, this shortfall is fueling growing public discontent. Around 60% of households have adopted negative coping strategies, including asset sales, child labor, and reduced food consumption. In addition, import disruptions have triggered sharp price increases in essential goods rising by up to 40% including wheat flour, cooking oil, fuel, and medicines. For example, the price of a 10-kilogram sack of rice has increased from $22 to $39, while the prices of potatoes, tomatoes, and peppers have doubled.

Human Rights & Civil Liberties

• Approximately 50% of media outlets have closed, leaving thousands of journalists unemployed or in exile. Furthermore, there are documented cases of arbitrary detention, reprisals, and enforced disappearances, reflecting a deteriorating human rights environment.

Basic Health and Other Facilities

• Around 17 to 18 million people lack adequate access to essential healthcare. Basic services including healthcare and food distribution are largely sustained through external assistance, with the health sector more than 80% donor-funded according to World Health Organization). However, even this lifeline is under severe strain, as aid plans are consistently underfunded by 40 to 60%. This has increased the risks of malnutrition and maternal mortality, particularly in rural areas. At the same time, supplies of specialized medical equipment and medicines, including diagnostic tools, are running dangerously low.

A Non-Inclusive Government, Not Representing the Will of the People

• Governance structures under the Afghan Taliban remain narrow, centralized, and non-inclusive. There is no constitution, no representative political system, and no institutional accountability framework. Decision-making is concentrated within a limited leadership circle, while administrative capacity has been weakened by the flight of skilled professionals.
• Afghanistan remains internationally unrecognized, limiting access to global financial systems and investment. ISIS-K and other terrorist groups continue to conduct attacks within Afghanistan, including mass-casualty incidents, while regional concerns over terrorist sanctuaries persist.
• These concerns have been echoed by China, Russia, and the United States, reflecting broad international apprehension over security assurances. Ultimately, the absence of inclusive governance frameworks means that short-term control merely masks long-term instability risks.
• Illegitimate control, without inclusion of the greater part of the populace, does not constitute governance. Durable stability requires economic functionality, inclusion, and legitimacy none of which are currently being achieved in Afghanistan. As a result, the country remains on the brink of a crisis far exceeding global expectation.