Iranian Strike Leaves Pakistan With No Easy Options for Response

17 January 2024

Published in: The New York Times

An Iranian airstrike inside Pakistan on Tue that Iran said was aimed at militant training camps has left Pakistani officials facing a difficult decision about whether to retaliate and potentially expand the turmoil that has swept the ME. Relations b/w Pakistan and neighboring Iran reached a new low after Iran’s attack in the restive Baluchistan region, with Pakistan reporting civil casualties, including children, and warning that the violation of its sovereignty could have serious consequences.
▪️ But beyond the diplomatic protests and warnings, it was not immediately clear if Pakistan, which is reeling from political and eco crises and headed for parliamentary elections next month, is in a position to strike back militarily or enter into a drawn-out conflict with Iran.
▪️ “If Pakistan hits back, it risks getting drawn into ME conflicts it has avoided so far,” said Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador who is now a scholar of diplomacy. “If it does not retaliate, it will appear weak yet again, and that will have consequences for the prestige of its AFs.”
▪️ Muhammad Ashfaque Arain, a former air marshal in the Pakistani Air Force, pointed to the delicate position Pakistan was in, with a caretaker govt in charge until the election. “The Iranian strike is a very serious dev,” he said. The fact that there is no elected govt complicates the response.
▪️ While India has long been an adversary, Pakistan’s ties with Afghanistan have also soured in recent months, with Pakistani officials accusing the Afghan Taliban of providing shelter to militant gps, including their ally the Pakistani Taliban, a claim the Afghan gp has rejected. Pakistan’s recent policy of expelling undocumented foreigners, mostly Afghans, has further strained relations.
▪️ Pakistan, in turn, has accused Iran of supporting separatists in Bln, a southwestern Pakistani province rich in oil and other natural resources that has been the site of an insurgency for decades. Pakistani officials also cite the 2016 arrest of an Indian naval officer in Bln as proof that Indian espionage backed by Iran is supporting the Baluch insurgency.
▪️ The latest Iranian strike, amid the heightened political tensions in Pakistan before the election scheduled for Feb 8, was seemingly timed to take advantage of that turmoil, analysts said.
▪️ Imran Khan, the former PM who accuses the Pakistani mil of removing his govt, is in jail. His supporters have unleashed a barrage of criticism at the city’s mil which has struggled to contain the former PM popularity.