Pakistan, Bangladesh revive direct shipping route but is it an ominous sign for India?
Publishing date: 18 November 2024
Published in: SCMP
Pakistan’s first direct cargo ship to Bangladesh in five decades docked last week, marking a historic thaw in relations between the two countries that has raised concerns in India about a potential strategic realignment in the region.
The vessel, sailing under a Panama flag from Karachi, arrived at the port city of Chittagong on November 11, signalling a significant step forward for Pakistan and Bangladesh, particularly after the ouster of former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s regime.
New Delhi should not be surprised that Bangladesh and Pakistan would make some significant progress in deepening their relationship, Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, told This Week in Asia.
“It is very clear that the interim government, because of its concerns about its partnership with India, would want to take a bit of a different approach to Pakistan,” Kugelman said.
“We have seen some pretty notable signalling from [Dr Muhammad Yunus, the head of Bangladesh’s interim government] during his first few weeks in power, including meeting with senior Pakistani officials at the UNGA meeting.”
Yunus’ government has sought Interpol’s help to repatriate Hasina from India, where she is currently living, to face criminal trial over the violent crackdown on the student-led uprising against her regime that resulted in numerous casualties.
In a post on X, the Pakistan High Commission in Bangladesh hailed the docking as a “major step in [improving] bilateral trade”, adding that the new route “will streamline supply chains, reduce transit time and open new business opportunities for both countries”.
Bangladesh and Pakistan’s relationship has been strained since the 1971 Liberation war, when East Pakistan gained independence with India’s military support.
However, after Hasina’s ouster, Yunus’ interim government has shown a shift towards closer ties with Pakistan.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan and Yunus discussed strengthening bilateral cooperation on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September this year.
“The maritime link is essential for reviving our relations,” Yunus said, calling for a “new page” in Pakistan-Bangladesh ties to enhance cooperation in different sectors.
Kugelman said Hasina’s Awami League government, founded by her father and Bangladesh’s founder Mujibur Rahman, was unwilling to strengthen ties with Pakistan due to its lack of a full apology for the 1971 war.
In 2022, Hasina’s government denied Pakistan’s request for the Chinese-built frigate warship PNS Taimur to dock at Chittagong port.
India’s concern
However, the Yunus-led government in October scrapped the mandatory 100 per cent physical inspection of goods imported from Pakistan to facilitate business operations.
A former diplomat, who did not wish to be named, said India would only be worried if Pakistan was sending “anything objectionable”.
“You can look at it in a normal way that it is just a trading ship except for the fact that the Bangladesh government has erased the mandatory checking,” they said. “And Pakistan has a habit of sending arms and ammunition to various groups in Bangladesh, that is the main issue.”
Kugelman said the issue of the Pakistani cargo vessel depended on perspective.
“The glass half full approach is that Pakistan and Bangladesh are simply trying to expand their trade relations that could deliver a notable boost as both their economies, especially Pakistan’s, have really been struggling over the last few years,” he said.
“But India will understandably be concerned that there could be more to this apparent growing commercial cooperation than simply commercial relations. India would not forget that some years ago a very large arms [shipment] was discovered in Bangladesh which according to India was sponsorship from Pakistan.”
Kugelman was referring to an incident in 2004 where a shipment of arms meant for a rebel group in India’s northeast was intercepted at Chittagong port.
“So, given India’s fraught relationship with Pakistan and given Delhi’s suspicion about any type of Pakistan’s intention in Bangladesh, I think for India this development [docking of Pakistan vessel] will be viewed with [a] considerable amount of concern,” he said.
India–Bangladesh ties
Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, while India is Bangladesh’s second-biggest trade partner in Asia. The relationship flourished during Hasina’s 15-year rule.
According to the Ministry of External Affairs, Bangladesh exported US$1.97 billion of goods to India in financial year 2023-24, while total bilateral trade was US$14.01 billion.
Sanjay K Bhardwaj, a professor at the Centre for South Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, said India should not create a vacuum for China and other countries to gain influence in Bangladesh.
“China is always looking to enter South Asia to counter India. Beijing has the money to debt trap any country like Sri Lanka and Pakistan. So, India shouldn’t give any such passage to them in Bangladesh,” Bhardwaj said.
“Bay of Bengal and northeast is very critical for India’s strategic and economic interest. So, India needs to be cautious not only about Bangladesh but also what is happening in the Maldives and Nepal as well.”
Jon Danilowicz, a former US diplomat who has served in Bangladesh, said Pakistan did not have much to offer Bangladesh, but “right-wing Indian observers” would still point to developments such as the Pakistani ship visit as evidence that Yunus was under the sway of anti-Indian elements.
“Yunus and his supporters are focused on implementing reforms that will enable free and fair elections,” Danilowicz said. “This effort has garnered widespread international support, but India has yet to embrace the [uprising] and continues to be tied to Hasina.”
Danilowicz said China-Bangladesh relations had grown considerably during Hasina’s tenure, and unlike India, China was quick to pivot after Hasina’s fall and was interested in continuing to strengthen ties with Bangladesh.
For Bangladesh, another notable development since Yunus took office had been the repairing of ties with the country’s traditional partners in the West, in particular the US, Danilowicz added.