The population paradigm
Dr Durre Nayab
Published Date: 24 February 2025
Published in: The News
For decades, Pakistan’s population discourse has been anchored in an outdated narrative: the country’s growing numbers are viewed as the primary obstacle to development.
With a population exceeding 242 million, the challenges of unemployment, poverty and strained public resources are undeniably severe. However, this simplistic view of population size as the root of all problems obscures a more critical reality: the key to progress lies not just in controlling the number of people but in enhancing the quality of the population.
It is time to shift the focus from quantity to quality and transform Pakistan’s human capital into its most valuable asset. And it may be added here that improving the quality of the population will unarguably lead to lowering the quantity – an end that we are unsuccessfully trying to chase right now.
Pakistan’s policy framework often mirrors the Malthusian Trap, a theory suggesting that population growth inevitably outstrips resources, leading to stagnation and poverty. This narrow perspective disregards the complex interplay of factors influencing development. High fertility rates in Pakistan are not merely a cause of poverty but also a consequence of it, reflecting systemic issues such as limited access to education, healthcare and economic opportunities.
Globally, nations that have successfully tackled similar challenges demonstrate a clear pattern: investing in human capital – education, healthcare, and skill development – fosters economic growth and social progress.
For instance, China and India, once labelled as overpopulated nations, are now recognised as billion-strong markets driving global innovation and commerce. Their success underscores the importance of viewing the population as a resource to be cultivated, not a burden to be managed. Pakistan must adopt a similar perspective.
Pakistan is currently experiencing a demographic transition, offering a unique opportunity to reap the benefits of its demographic dividend – a period when the working-age population outnumbers dependents. This window, projected to remain open until 2056, could serve as a springboard for economic growth if properly harnessed. Yet, instead of focusing on this potential, the prevailing discourse remains fixated on population control.
Unfortunately, Pakistan’s youth, a demographic that should be its greatest asset, is woefully underutilised. One-third of college-educated young adults are unemployed, with women disproportionately affected. The disconnect between education and labour market demands exacerbates this issue, resulting in a generation unable to contribute effectively to the economy. Without significant reforms, Pakistan risks squandering its demographic dividend.
To transform its growing population into a driver of economic prosperity, Pakistan must adopt a holistic, multi-pronged approach. All policies are about people, but ironically, they are the missing block in any such formulation. Population dynamics must be integrated into the decision-making processes of all government sectors. Ministries of finance, education, health and labour must collaborate to address the root causes of socio-economic challenges tied to population growth.
Employment generation is critical, particularly for youth and women. Beyond reducing unemployment, quality jobs create a virtuous cycle of income generation, savings and investments, essential for sustaining economic growth. Increased female workforce participation can also empower women, promote gender equality, and reduce fertility rates by raising the opportunity cost of having children.
The education system must shift from a focus on quantity to quality. This includes updating curricula to align with 21st-century labour market demands, training educators in modern teaching methodologies, and ensuring equitable access to quality education. Without these changes, Pakistan’s youth bulge will remain a liability rather than an asset.
Effective family planning initiatives are essential for empowering individuals to make informed reproductive choices. However, the slow progress of Pakistan’s contraceptive prevalence rate, which stands at 38 per cent, including traditional methods that have low efficacy, reveals a need for greater cultural awareness, accessibility and trust in modern contraceptive methods.
The current formula incentivises population growth by allocating resources based on size. This approach undermines efforts to improve human capital. Shifting to a target-based formula – rewarding provinces for advancements in education, healthcare and gender equality – can help align financial incentives with development goals.
Social cohesion, often overlooked, is critical for economic and societal progress. Low levels of trust and civic engagement in Pakistan hinder collective action and economic growth. Promoting volunteerism and community activities can foster a sense of shared responsibility and cooperation, essential for long-term development.
The size of Pakistan’s population is not inherently the problem; its quality and utilisation are. By redefining human capital as a resource to be nurtured, Pakistan can break free from its vicious cycle of poverty, high fertility, and underdevelopment. A well-educated, skilled, and healthy population is the cornerstone of a prosperous and equitable society.
Adam Smith, in his seminal work ‘The Wealth of Nations’, declared labour to be the most important source of a country’s wealth. Pakistan has the opportunity to embrace this principle by investing in its people. The path forward demands courage, vision, and a willingness to challenge entrenched narratives. The question is not whether Pakistan can afford to invest in its population but whether the nation can afford not to.